over-fitting the forecast

French translation: en effectuant des prévisions selon un surajustement

GLOSSARY ENTRY (DERIVED FROM QUESTION BELOW)
English term or phrase:over-fitting the forecast
French translation:en effectuant des prévisions selon un surajustement
Entered by: Thierry Darlis

02:05 Jun 23, 2017
English to French translations [PRO]
Business/Commerce (general)
English term or phrase: over-fitting the forecast
The other method is the “illusion of validity” by over-fitting the forecast. For example, were the demand peaks of, say, August and October of 2014 random fluctuations or a seasonal variation? Over-fitting provides the “high quality of the match between a selected outcome and the input” or an illusion of consistency. Unfortunately, the accuracy of the, say, March 2014 forecast was only poor for the rest of the year (actual orders were either much higher or lower than the forecast), as it later turned out that random fluctuations (rather than expected seasonality) dominated the demand.
Thierry Darlis
United States
Local time: 19:46
en effectuant des prévisions selon un surajustement
Explanation:
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Note added at 8 heures (2017-06-23 10:25:37 GMT)
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En France, on parle de prévisions pour l'économie.

Prédiction est du domaine de l'astrologie, la voyance...
Selected response from:

GILOU
France
Local time: 00:46
Grading comment
4 KudoZ points were awarded for this answer



Summary of answers provided
4en faisant des prédictions basées sur une régression surajustée
Francois Boye
4 -1en effectuant des prévisions selon un surajustement
GILOU
4 -1surinterprétation des prévisions
Christian Fournier
4 -1créer une "illusion de validité [du modèle]" en surestimant l'exactitude des prédictions
Daryo


  

Answers


48 mins   confidence: Answerer confidence 4/5Answerer confidence 4/5
by over-fitting the forecast
en faisant des prédictions basées sur une régression surajustée


Explanation:
https://www.minitab.com/fr-fr/Published-Articles/Les-dangers...

Francois Boye
United States
Local time: 19:46
Specializes in field
Native speaker of: Native in FrenchFrench
PRO pts in category: 235

Peer comments on this answer (and responses from the answerer)
agree  FX Fraipont (X): prévisions?
2 hrs

disagree  Daryo: wrong way round // your ref. has nothing to do with this ST // what the text says is "over-fitting the forecast to the observed / real figures, the second part being left implied as "being blindingly obvious" for the experts (one more case of ...)
6 hrs
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3 hrs   confidence: Answerer confidence 4/5Answerer confidence 4/5 peer agreement (net): -1
en effectuant des prévisions selon un surajustement


Explanation:
-

--------------------------------------------------
Note added at 8 heures (2017-06-23 10:25:37 GMT)
--------------------------------------------------

En France, on parle de prévisions pour l'économie.

Prédiction est du domaine de l'astrologie, la voyance...

GILOU
France
Local time: 00:46
Native speaker of: French
PRO pts in category: 1713

Peer comments on this answer (and responses from the answerer)
disagree  Daryo: wrong way round / /not much point dissecting prévisions vs. prédictions if you don't get the basic meaning of the whole ST right
3 hrs
  -> prédictions, c'est faux. Si vous ne voyez pas la différence.....
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10 hrs   confidence: Answerer confidence 4/5Answerer confidence 4/5 peer agreement (net): -1
surinterprétation des prévisions


Explanation:
autre suggestion...

Christian Fournier
France
Local time: 00:46
Specializes in field
Native speaker of: Native in FrenchFrench
PRO pts in category: 198

Peer comments on this answer (and responses from the answerer)
disagree  Daryo: be it "fitting" or "over-fitting" by definition of the word "to fit" it involves the comparison of TWO variables the forecast and the what really happened - it's not about ONLY one variable - the forecasts
1 hr
  -> "surinterpréter" une prévision est forcément par rapport à "what really happened"
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7 hrs   confidence: Answerer confidence 4/5Answerer confidence 4/5 peer agreement (net): -1
“illusion of validity” by over-fitting the forecast
créer une "illusion de validité [du modèle]" en surestimant l'exactitude des prédictions


Explanation:
the “illusion of validity” by over-fitting the forecast
=

créer une "illusion de validité" en surestimant l'exactitude des prédictions

créer une "illusion de validité" en surestimant la correspondance entre les prédictions et les chiffres réels


the explanation given is quite clear:

you have a model

you apply the model to make predictions

later you compare the predictions with what really happened

at few points in time your predictions are very close to what happened (the two figures "fit" well), so you think "this model is good at predicting whatever it's predicting" - wrong! you are "over-fitting" = overestimating how good is your model at making predictions

namely, if you look at a longer period of time, the few points in time where your model got it right show to be just accidents where unexplained variations produced few isolated cases of a "good fit" between predictions and reals figures.


IOW the "over-fitting" has NOTHING to do with making the predictions - at that stage you simply apply your model.

the "over-fitting" in this ST can happen at the stage when you compare your forecast with what really happened:

The other method is the “illusion of validity” by over-fitting the forecast. For example, were the demand peaks of, say, August and October of 2014 random fluctuations or a seasonal variation? Over-fitting provides the “high quality of the match between a selected outcome and the input” or an illusion of consistency. Unfortunately, the accuracy of the, say, March 2014 forecast was only poor for the rest of the year (actual orders were either much higher or lower than the forecast), as it later turned out that random fluctuations (rather than expected seasonality) dominated the demand.

see:

Insensibilité à la prévisibilité et illusion de validité

Tversky et Kahneman4 développent également l’idée que les jugements et estimations sont faits en tenant peu compte de la prédictibilité : les individus ne prennent pas en considération le fait que les informations disponibles soient fiables et permettent une prédiction précise, ou non. Ceci est expliqué par le fait que les individus n'ont qu'une compréhension sommaire des statistiques. De plus les individus ressentent une grande confiance en leurs jugements, ce que les auteurs appellent l’illusion de validité (la confiance injustifiée produite par un bon ajustement entre le résultat prédit et les informations disponibles)

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristique_de_jugement


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Note added at 12 hrs (2017-06-23 14:46:18 GMT)
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something can "fit" ONLY in relation to something else, not on its own.

here, the forecast can only "fit" [or "over-fit] in relation to / compared to the real figures - what really happened compared to the model's forecast.

"l'exactitude des prédictions" makes an implicit comparison with "les observations réelles"

or in plain speak, couldn't be more unambiguous:

la correspondance entre les prédictions et les chiffres réels




Daryo
United Kingdom
Local time: 23:46
Specializes in field
Native speaker of: Native in SerbianSerbian, Native in FrenchFrench
PRO pts in category: 169

Peer comments on this answer (and responses from the answerer)
disagree  GILOU: Illusion c'est David Copperfield. Prédiction, c'est Nostradamus.....C'est juste insensé....
2 mins
  -> quite interesting style, I must admit - but as for the content of the comment - no comments ...
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